CARPO Brief 07

07: Envisioning the Future: Iranian and Saudi Perspectives on the Post-Oil Economy

by Danila Bochkarev and Jan Hanrath

The third meeting of CARPO and the EastWest Institute’s Iran-Saudi Track 2 Dialogue Initiative was dedicated to the repercussions of changing global energy markets on Iran and Saudi Arabia. The workshop brought together policy experts and economists from Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as experts from Europe. They discussed challenges and opportunities a ‘post-oil’ era might bring and explored potential areas for cooperation between both countries. While participants agreed on the necessity of cooperation for creating strong and less oil-dependent economies, from which both countries as well as the whole region would benefit, their assessments varied on where this could begin. CARPO Brief 07 summarizes key insights and recommendations derived from the conference discussions.

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CARPO Brief 06

06: Between Dependence and Diversification. Making Sense of Iran’s Energy

by David Ramin Jalilvand

Parallel to the conclusion and implementation of the nuclear deal, Iran’s energy sector has become a subject of interest around the world. An estimated $100 billion in foreign investment are needed for the modernization of the Iranian energy industry. Following the relief of sanctions granted as part of the nuclear deal, the government of President Hassan Rouhani is now trying to gain cooperation with international companies. In order to make better sense of Tehran’s energy policy and to more accurately assess the overall situation in the Iranian energy sector, this paper argues that attention needs to also be given to Iran’s long-term developments. Unlike the past, Iran is now increasingly utilizing its oil and natural gas production domestically. This has important implications for the country’s political economy.

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CARPO Brief 05

05: Victimized by Geopolitics – Iranian and Saudi Perspectives on the Refugee Crisis

by Wael Abdul-Shafi, Kawa Hassan, and Adnan Tabatabai

The second meeting of CARPO and the EastWest Institute’s Iran-Saudi Track 2 Dialogue initiative took place in spring 2016 in Bonn. Current and former diplomats, analysts and security experts from both countries met alongside European scholars and experts to discuss “Iranian and Saudi Perspectives on the Refugee Crisis”. During the two-day conference, the participants elaborated on how the term “refugee“ is conceptualized in Saudi Arabia and Iran. They further shared their views and future visions about the ongoing conflicts and the humanitarian crises in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan – the four main ’departure contexts’ of refugees in West and Central Asia. CARPO Brief 05 summarizes key insights and recommendations derived from the conference discussions.

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CARPO Brief 04

04: The EU’s Balancing Act in the Middle East – How to Engage Iran without Alienating GCC States

by Jan Hanrath

Initial hopes that the nuclear agreement between Iran and the E3+3 would increase regional security and decrease political tensions have been dashed. Conflicts in the Middle East are escalating further, and tensions between GCC states and Iran are intensifying. In light of this regional tug-of-war, the EU needs to develop a policy that succeeds in integrating the Iranian position into regional affairs without alienating other allies in the region. Against this backdrop CARPO organized a conference on EU-Middle East relations early this year. CARPO Brief 04 summarizes the conference discussions and outlines potential EU– Middle East initiatives.

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CARPO Brief 03

03: Know Your Enemy – Iranian and Saudi Perspectives on ISIL

by Adnan Tabatabai & Kawa Hassan

CARPO and the EastWest Institute have established a confidential track 2 format for Iranian-Saudi dialogue. The first dialogue meeting took place In the fall of 2015 in Brussels. Current and former diplomats, analysts and security experts from both countries met alongside European policy-makers and experts to discuss “Iranian and Saudi Perspectives on ISIL”. During the 2-day conference, root-causes of the rise of ISIL were outlined along four key dimensions, and comprehensive strategies against violent extremist organizations such as ISIL proposed. CARPO Brief 03 summarizes the most important insights and presents tangible policy recommendations.

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CARPO Brief 02

02: Turkey’s Parliamentary Elections and the Quest for Stability

by Şafak Baş

Turkey is set to hold its parliamentary elections on November 1 in an atmosphere marked by political violence, polarization and insecurity. Regardless of the election outcome, Ankara will need to focus on national reconciliation and the reduction of sociopolitical tensions. Peace talks with the Kurdish PKK must resume. Even as its Western partners should substantially support Turkey in handling the influx of refugees into Turkey and Europe, the West must also urge Ankara to foster national reconciliation and to respect the democratic principles that are deeply rooted in the history of the republic.

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CARPO Report 1 - Heinze

01: Making Sense of Iran’s Iraq Policy

by Mohammad Ali Shabani

Iran’s relationship with Iraq has come into the limelight amid the onslaught of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Iranian policy is geared towards maintaining Iraq’s territorial integrity, secure qualified stability and expand Iran’s economic sphere. To maximize its influence in Iraq, Tehran has been playing the long game, exploited the mistakes of other foreign actors, diversified its relationships with Iraqi factions, seized on Baghdad’s limited alliance options and sought a constructive relationship with Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani.

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