Addressing Russia’s Search for New Strongholds in the Mediterranean

This CARPO Brief analyzes Russia’s evolving military strategy in the Mediterranean following the collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. With the fall of its long-time ally, Moscow faces growing challenges in maintaining its foothold in Syria while seeking alternative strongholds, particularly in Libya. This paper examines Russia’s efforts to preserve its presence at Tartus and Khmeimim while expanding operations in Libya. It also explores the broader geopolitical implications of Russia’s Mediterranean repositioning, particularly its impact on European and NATO security. Among its policy recommendations, the Brief calls for the need for a unified response to deter further Russian entrenchment in Libya and mitigate security risks linked to Moscow’s shifting Mediterranean strategy. It also recommends that NATO and the EU enhance naval surveillance, enforce the UN arms embargo on Libya, and encourage Syria’s new leadership to restrict Russia’s military access. It furthermore highlights the importance of engaging Türkiye as a key regional player to counterbalance Russian influence in the Mediterranean and North Africa.