Others
by Mohammed Al-Amrani and Julia Pickhardt
The dissolution of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the formation of a new Yemeni government have created a unique political constellation that offers a genuine window of opportunity. However, the government’s consolidation is fragile, resting on three unresolved faultlines: Southern representation, fiscal dependence on Riyadh and the integration of former STC forces. Since mid-2026 this has unfolded amid renewed conflict, which has intensified pressure on all three faultlines and is designed to force the government to choose between fighting and governing, a choice it cannot navigate successfully without external support. The choice is also a European one. Yemen’s governance trajectory bears directly on Red Sea security, Horn of Africa stability and migration at a moment when the maritime infrastructure connecting Asia, the Gulf and Europe is being reconfigured. This paper argues that European actors should treat this as a ‘governance investment opportunity’ rather than as a humanitarian holding pattern — and resist the reflex to reprogramme governance commitments into emergency response now that fighting has resumed.
